2019 July Lara-Murphy Report
On the last day of July, the Federal Reserve announced that it would be cutting its target for the federal funds rate, and it also moved up the termination of its balance sheet runoff. The move signals a fairly abrupt departure from the Fed’s official outlook from just a year ago, even though the underlying fundamentals have not significantly changed in the interim. Many observers have attributed the shift in Fed policy to Trump, either through his intimidation of Powell or because his antics with China could lead to a trade war (and hence require a shot in the arm to the economy). Either way, the Fed’s announcement does not bode well for the long-term health of the economy.